My hunch was right, the ice out flight will happen this week...

In case you are not a Facebooker, I am cross-posting this announcement from the Friends of Algonquin Park Facebook page:

Ontario Parks staff will be conducting an ice out flight sometime during April 18 to 21, 2011 to assess current ice conditions throughout Algonquin Park. The exact date can not be confirmed as the flight is dependent upon suitable weather conditions. Results of the ice out flight will be posted at http://www.algonquinpark.on.ca/news/ice-out.php as soon as they are available.

Along with many other great images, the Friends also recently posted a few aerial shots of popular lakes along Highway 60, taken April 12. Here's one of them, showing Tea, Smoke, Bonita and Canoe Lakes: 

You can see the Friends of Algonquin Park complete ice-out gallery here.

A little Algonquin Park brook trout stoke...

While you are sitting around waiting patiently for the ice to go out, take 10 minutes and watch this informative and beautifully filmed video on the native brook trout of Algonquin Park. There are some great underwater shots of fish and a powerful conservation message. You will also notice a few canoes courtesy of Algonquin Outfitters, by the way!

Algonquin Park ice report: yes, there is still ice.

Satellite image from April 9, 2011

I drove through through the park on Hwy 60 last evening, on my way home from spring skiing in Vermont (which was great, by the way). A lot of snow melted in the three days I was away, and with the torrential rain last night and mild weather today, even more will be gone by now. The ice is locked right up to the shore on all lakes you can see from the highway. Even small ponds are still frozen, though they look pretty mushy. So, what's the conclusion? Slow progress is happening but personally, I would estimate ice-out on bigger lakes in Algonquin Park is at least two, if not three weeks away. I have been wrong before. Golden Lake, to the east of Algonquin Park and at much lower elevation, is still ice covered though there is open water along the shoreline. As you can see from Saturday's satellite image, Lake Simcoe, Muskoka and Haliburton area lakes are still ice-covered (Opeongo is in the upper right corner).

If you decide to take a drive up and see for yourself, be careful on the roads. "Ice fog" can roll in during the evening and morning hours, making it difficult to see big critters like deer and moose. I had to stop near Cache Lake last night and wait for two shaggy moose to amble off the roadway, and a friend reported seeing a dead moose at km 15 when he drove through the park about two hours later.

Tea Lake Narrows from the highway bridge, April 7, 2011

Possibly the most-photographed island in Algonquin Park. Lake of Two Rivers, April 10, 2011

It's a lonely road on a Sunday in April. Just me, the fog and a few moose.

It's a little different from last year. Ice out April 3? I don't think so.

As type this in the office at Oxtongue Lake, I can hear the buzzing of snowmobiles drag racing up and down the lake. Last April 3, you might have heard the putt-putting of a cottager out cruising in their tin boat, or maybe the swish of a paddle. I'm not complaining about the sledders, if I was a snowmobiler I'd probably be doing the same thing. I am a skier, and what did I do yesterday? I went skiing with friends just outside of Huntsville. Some folks came in the store today and reported excellent spring conditions on the neighbouring trails belonging to the Blue Spruce Resort.

Spring is making inevitable progress. Snow is receding fast on the sunny side of the highway. The robin has returned. Alas, for paddlers and anglers, the lakes are still frozen solid.

Algonquin Park has cranked up their ice out reporting for 2011. For some recent pictures of conditions in the park, check out the Friends of Algonquin Park Facebook page (and you don't even have to be a "Facebooker" to see the pictures). The FOAP website has, among other items, an interesting comparison of 2008 satellite imagery with that of 2011, found here. Looking at those images, the big thing that stands out is how "grey" much of the ice looks in southern and central Ontario in the 2011 image. I hate to be a killjoy but don't take that to mean that the ice in Algonquin Park is about ready to go. While grey ice in the satellite image can mean soft mushy ice on the verge of disappearing, it is not always the case.  In that image, with the exception of lakes south of Hwy 7, I believe it means that there is a layer of water on top of the ice, formed by the sun's melting of the surface snow. I see this happen every day outside the window.

Being a dedicated ice-out blogger, I mentally correlated those images with the archived ice-out data for 2008 on the Canoe Lake Ice-Out page. Interestingly, most people (including me) predicted a late ice-out of April 30 but the winning date was April 25. As I recall, and confirmed by reviewing this blog's archive, we were calling for a late ice-out up to the middle of April. Then, the weather shifted, someone turned the heat on and POOF, the ice disappeared very quickly.

So, for you optimists out there, anything can happen. For you realists out there, keep your eye on the weather, use the resources at hand, and plan accordingly.

I'm just sayin'...

Utah the Wonder Dog trying to help dig out our deck in rural Huntsville, April 2, 2011.

Of Easter, ice-out and openings...

March 25: Lakes Scugog and Simcoe are still frozen!

A number of ingredients are combining to spice up the recipe for "ice out frenzy" this season. Start with an unusually early opening of trout season in Algonquin Park: April 23. Add in an equally unusual late Easter Weekend: April 22 - 25. Mix it up with last year's record early ice-out date of April 4 (on Lake Opeongo), then spice with all the eagerness of an early-season angler and you end up with many optimistic people thinking they will paddling merrily up Lake Opeongo on Good Friday, ready to fish the next day.

I hate to be a wet blanket but let's be realistic. The image to right comes from my old friend, the NOAA CoastWatch satellite image of the Great Lakes Region, updated twice daily all year round. The picture you see was taken yesterday, March 25. To locate things geographically, you can see Lake Opeongo in the upper-right, Lake Bernard in the upper left, Lake of Bays just above the centre and Lake Simcoe is very obvious in the lower left. In my experience of anecdotal observing, Algonquin Park lakes open up three to four weeks after Simcoe, depending on the weather. Hmmm. Do the math. Overnight temperatures this week have been in the negative double digits every night this week: the forecast is -18 C tonight. This spring is not going to be like last year (as the saying goes: that was then, this is now). I'm even thinking about changing my prediction on the Canoe Lake Ice-Out Contest but that might be against the rules. It is still early, and anything can happen, but if you are planning a canoe trip for Easter Weekend in Algonquin Park, I would definitely recommend having a backup plan, like hiking in the bug-free forest.

Having said all this, there have been some signs of spring. Snow has disappeared on many south-facing aspects outside the park. Deer are on the move. About a week ago, I saw a robin in my backyard and dutifully reported it on the Journey North site. There I learned that individual robins are seen a week or so before the first "wave" of robins. I haven't seen that robin since and no wave has appeared. I can imagine the modern critter, pecking out a tweet to his buddies on his BirdBerry:

@robinscout: am in Huntsville. Still %&$#)^% cold and snowy here. No worms. Heading back south.

If you are home watching robins or waiting for the ice to go out, check out Journey North. It is a very cool collection of information (all reported by volunteers) related to to animal migration and signs of spring (including ice-out).

Spring skiing in the Muskoka trees on March 25, 2011.
Conditions are ideal for short-legged dogs.

After you do that, turn the computer off, shut down your phone and get out there and enjoy the spring snow conditions in Algonquin, Haliburton and Muskoka. Trails are firm, walking is easy, backcountry ski conditions are awesome, the weather is sunny and the roads are dry. With Daylight Savings Time in effect, it's not getting dark until 8 o'clock or so. I've been skiing after work several days recently. We've had several groups checking in today on their way to the Western Uplands and Highland hiking trails. There is no reason not to come up to Algonquin Park right now! Unless maybe you were thinking about canoeing. That day will come - be patient!